Nearly half of Iraq’s population is under the age of 21. ‘Iraq: The Lost Generation,’ which was shot for Channel 4, opens a window into the hidden lives of Iraqi Youth. I strongly recommend watching it.

It follows the lives of the insurgent, the soldier, the doctor, the militiaman, the prisoner, the salesman and the disabled. All of them young Iraqis who have lost hope and feel they have no future.

Haider, 19, a Shi’ite from Sadr City, lost a leg when American forces opened fire randomly after a bomb targeted their patrol. His father was executed by Saddam’s regime. Now he hates both Saddam and the Americans.

Mazin, 18, joined a Sunni insurgent group in Fallujah after his mother was shot in the head by American troops during the first military campaign against Fallujah. His mother wanted him to complete his studies, but he is obsessed with revenge and continues to fight Americans in Fallujah with a small group of friends.

Ali, 18, is a member of Sadr’s Mahdi Army.

Mohammed, 26, is a doctor working at a hospital in central Baghdad. He is planning to leave the country as soon as possible.

Ahmed, 18, was arrested by American troops two years ago when they stormed into his family’s house in Baghdad. Ahmed, his six brothers and his father were accused of being an insurgent cell. They were imprisoned at Abu Ghraib for twelve months and received no trial.

Kamal, 17, a Shi’ite, was forced to leave a mixed neighbourhood of Baghdad where he lived with his family.

Yousif is a soldier in the new Iraqi army. He was a deserter of the old army.

Watch it here.

So the tyrant will be hanged. A moment that Iraqis awaited for years, but now that it's here, it seems to be tasteless. Not that it will fail to bring a much-deserved sense of justice to the families of his victims, but because of the unprofessional and highly politicised manner with which it was handled.

The exiles who returned to Iraq after the war and proclaimed themselves as victors and new rulers also came with a strong desire for revenge. Starting from the disbanding of the Iraqi army, de-Ba'athification, and a long series of developments, ending with Maliki's pressure on the U.S. to lift the siege on Sadr City, the U.S. has, knowingly or unknowingly, catered to that revenge.

The death sentence against Saddam Sunday - even though no one denies that Saddam deserves the most gruesome death - is the latest chapter in that series.

The following is from PM Maliki’s address to Iraqis today:

“The sentence against Saddam does not mean much to us. His execution does not equal a drop of the blood of the martyr Sayyid Mohammed Baqir Al-Sadr, the martyr Sayyid Mohammed Sadiq Al-Sadr, or the martyrs of the Al-Hakim family, the martyrs of the Islamic Da’wa [Party], the martyred clerics Sheikh Abdul Aziz Al-Badri, Sheikh Nadhum Al-Asi, or any other martyr from the Iraqi people, Kurds, Turkomen and Chaldo-Assyrians.”

PM Maliki is not speaking for all Iraqis here, even though he tries to. He is speaking for the returning exiles and the new rulers of Iraq.

This is the best video I could find of the moment when the verdict was given. This is the translation of Saddam’s tirade:

“Long live the people. Long live the Ummah (nation). Down with the collaborators. Down with the invaders … Allahu Akbar (God is great). Allahu Akbar. Allahu Akbar. Allahu Akbar. Allahu Akbar … Long live the people. Long live the Ummah. Down with the collaborators. Down with the invaders … (addressing the judge) Tuzz (to hell) with you and the court … We are up to it. We are up to it. Down with the villains … We are the people of humanity, and the criminal invaders are the enemies of humanity, and their collaborators are the enemies of humanity … Allahu Akbar. Allahu Akbar. Allahu Akbar, and down with the villains … I entrust to the great Iraqi people to pardon all of those who deviated and those who retract from their stance. And I entrust to our great people not to take revenge from the peoples of the countries that attacked Iraq … (addressing the judge) You do not decide. You are servants to colonialism, to the invaders. You are servants … Allahu Akbar. Allahu Akbar … Life is for us and death is for our enemies. Life is for the people and death to its enemies. Life is for the glorious Ummah and death to its enemies.”

Pitiful.

Bush hailed the conviction of the dictator as a milestone. The question really is: a milestone for whom? “It is a major achievement for Iraq’s young democracy and its constitutional government,” he said. I say it’s sad that a majority of Americans are still unaware that Iraq’s “constitutional government” is a joke, and there is nothing that resembles democracy in Iraq today. Warring factions control different parts of the country while the government is imprisoned in the Green Zone. U.S. and Iraqi forces are confined to their bases. Militias, gangs and death squads prowl at day and night unchallenged, if not abetted by Iraqi security forces. The tortured corpses of dozens of unfortunate Iraqis turn up in mass graves every morning. Services are in shambles. Reconstruction is nonexistent, not even in safe regions of Iraq, even though hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent. Administrative corruption, smuggling, nepotism and cronyism are rampant. Local councils and religious parties have become entrenched in their positions and elections in the governorates have been suspended. The government threatens the press with prosecution if they dare criticise officials. Iraqi professionals and the middle class have almost entirely left the country. 3,000 Iraqis flee to Jordan and Syria every day. 1.6 million Iraqis are refugees in their own country. Health conditions are worse than ever. The educational system has been interrupted by violence and corruption. All the previous “milestones” in Iraq were rushed to suit the purposes of American domestic politics.

Some Iraqis are saying that the timing of the sentence was intended to influence the mid-term elections in the U.S. Republicans say that’s a preposterous charge, and point to the “impartiality” and “independence” of the Iraqi court. I can’t attest to the former, but I know for a fact that describing the court as independent and impartial is preposterous. The Iraqi government has interfered with the court proceedings from day one. The first presiding judge resigned, citing “interference from governmental officials.” Another was replaced because he turned out to be a member of the Ba’ath party under Saddam, and a third was kicked out because some officials were outraged when he appeared to be a bit sympathetic to the dictator. Two members of Saddam’s defense team were assassinated by sectarian militias aligned with parties close to the government, and the court failed to provide them with the necessary documents on time over and over again. A video of the prosecutor general wearing a turban and sitting in a reception for SCIRI at Dujail was leaked to the court by Saddam’s defense team but was dismissed. One witness was shown on tape contradicting his testimony to the court at the same reception, and so on.

Anyone can point out the problems with the court, but that is not my issue here. I want to ask my American readers: will the death sentence against Saddam influence your voting choice Tuesday?

Take a look at the celebrating Iraqis on the streets: whose posters are they carrying? This is not as much a celebration of the death of Saddam as much as it’s a celebration of the birth of new tyrants and warlords. The tide has turned forever. The new victors in Iraq are the followers of Sadr and Hakim, and as the Ba’athists and Sunni insurgents and jihadists become more localised and irrelevant, the next conflict will be between those two. The way I see it now, the breakup of Iraqi is inevitable. It is already a fact on the ground and there will be nothing but bloodshed in the near future. Is that a milestone for Iraq?


This demonstrator in Sadr City brandishes a Glock handgun that was issued by Americans to Iraqi security forces. Now we know where those thousands of weapons have disappeared to:







When will we see the trial for Maliki, Sadr, Hakim and all the other exiles who are making millions from Iraq's misery today, and are part of the problem, not the solution? I hope I live to see that day.

On the other hand, I'm glad this farce is over.

***

While Saddam’s sentence was given, several mortar rounds were fired against Adhamiya from across the river in Kadhimiya. Most of them targeted the vicinity of shrine of Imam Abu Hanifa, a Muslim jurist buried in Adhamiya and revered by Sunni Muslims. Moments later, a patrol of 4wd vehicles arriving from Kasra attempted to enter the district from Antar Square and Raghiba Khatoun. Gunmen from the district immediately took to the streets and repelled the patrol. Clashes raged on for the rest of the day and well into the night, while American helicopters circled the area.

A similar development took place in Fadhl, central Baghdad. Both areas have been under constant mortar fire from neighbouring Shi’ite districts for the last few days.

These are maps of the reactions to Saddam's death sentence in Baghdad and countrywide:



Just hours following the verdict, the Iraqi government decided to close the Al-Zawra and Salah Al-Din channels for “inciting violence and terrorism.” A spokesman for the Interior Ministry confirmed and added that this was part of the government’s “anti-terror legislation to take legal action against media outlets that incite and call for violence.” The Iraq News Network reported that police forces arrested both engineer Abdul Rahman Al-Dahash, the manager of Salah Al-Din, and Hassan Al-Jubouri, the programme editor.

The local channels, which are based in the volatile Salah Al-Din governorate north of Baghdad, had aired scenes from the protests in Tikrit against Saddam’s sentence, as part of the “Iraqi Street” programme, as well as interviews with protestors.

Salah Al-Din channel is owned and operated by two businessmen from Tikrit and most of its programmes are entertainment, while Al-Zawra is owned by MP Mish’an Al-Jubouri, head of the Reconciliation and Liberation Bloc, a Sunni bloc that has a few seats in Iraqi parliament.

The Al-Furat channel, operated by the Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution in Iraq (Shi’ite), had called on the Interior Ministry to close the two channels for broadcasting the pro-Saddam demonstrations today. Al-Furat, as well as a score of other local channels operated by Shi’ite political parties, often broadcasts religious hymns and songs that call for “revenge against the enemies of the Prophet’s household,” but it seems those channels are immune from the scrutiny of the Iraqi government, just as their militias are immune from prosecution and military action.

The government had also closed Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya, and there are increasing calls from Shi’ite MPs to close the Al-Sharqiya channel, which some argue is the only remaining Iraqi channel that does not align itself with any political party or sectarian group. The government has also prohibited the display of images of the violence in Iraq on TV stations, and has threatened media outlets and journalists with prosecution and legal action if they “criticise” Iraqi governmental officials (by reporting on corruption cases, for example).

Do any of these actions ring a bell?

***

I'll end with Shalash Al-Iraqi's reaction to the verdict, and I wholeheartedly agree with him:

This is Not the Problem
Shalash Al-Iraqi

Al-Salam Alaikum. The court decided to execute Saddam, and I think that you, dear readers, have conflicting emotions toward this event. I am like you. I have extremely conflicting emotions, as if I’m standing in a huge rubbish dump, and they want me to smell old rubbish. I’ve forgotten Saddam’s crimes when faced with the atrocities of brutal crimes we experience today. I am choking with death and they want me to remember the deaths of my grandfathers.

Frankly, I’m afraid. I’m afraid of the opportunists and the makers of imaginary victories. Saddam was toppled by America, captured by America, and tried and sentenced under the protection, desire and timing of America. Neither Maliki is the hero of our liberation from Saddam, nor has Hakim carried the banner of the armies that toppled his regime. If Maliki wants to become a true hero, there are other criminals that he can try and send to justice, and they are closer to him than his jugular vein.

We do not want the enemies of national unity to exploit this event by killing our people in the name of revenge for Saddam Hussein, when they are far from being his supporters, or for others to dance with joy for the sentence, when they are liars. Because there is nothing we have gained from his fall except death, death and death, and fear, fear and fear.

I do not deny that Saddam was a dictator. Show me one person in the Green Zone who is democratic, even on TV.

I do not deny that Saddam was brutal, terrifying and mystifying. Are the brothers in the Green Zone angels of mercy?

Saddam used to appoint his relatives and party members. Do you want me to bang on my head?

Saddam stole the people’s riches. Do you want me to tear off my clothes?

Saddam was a traitor. Do you want me to hurl myself on the floor?

Saddam was sectarian. No … I have to laugh at this one.

My brothers, I truly wished to see Saddam tried for his crimes. But I also wished to see him tried while the country is rebuilt, while freedom is spreading, while joy is overflowing the streets, while Iraqis stay up until morning on the banks of the Tigris, while our schools compete with those of Japan, while our streets are cleaner than a plate of cream, while our riches are evident on our faces, while our displaced brothers under God’s stars return to their families and loved ones, and while joy, joy, joy is everywhere.

Come see our schools. They are ruins and animal barns. Come see our streets. Even though there is a curfew, I don’t know who urinates on them at night. Our people are roaming on the face of earth, some in impoverished countries, and others in tattered tents that break the spirit. Beggars fill the street, and poverty has nested in ruined homes. Depression, disease, drought and horror prevail. I’m left in this wilderness alone after all my friends and relatives have left. A childish fool who doesn’t know how to write his name comes and screams at me, “Shalash! Are you not happy? Yallah, go out in the demonstration.” Wallah, I swear I’m happy, but I’m afraid I would go out and then people would envy me.

We came out of Saddam’s night, but we fell into a well … when will we come out?

Our problem is not Saddam, Barzan, or Taha Yassin Ramadan. Our problem is who is going to be dragged in the night from among his children and family to be found next morning a headless corpse. Inshallah it won’t be you, dear reader or me. Inshallah the fire of sectarians will eat their wood.

Fadhil Al-Dulaimi was one of my most memorable teachers at the Baghdad College Preparatory School in Baghdad. He was deputy dean and physics teacher for the last three years I spent there before I went to Dentistry School. I will never forget him because I still have a small fading scar on the back of my right hand from the time he hit me and another friend with a bamboo stick for skipping classes.

Despite his acting more like a military officer with conscripts, rather than a teacher with students, everyone respected and loved him. Students used to call him Arnoob (rabbit) because he was bald and the remaining hair he had was always up like rabbit ears. A mischievous student once brought a small rabbit to school and everyone was running after it, yelling Arnoob, Arnoob, while Dulaimi chased us with his stick with a slight smirk on his face. Long after I graduated, I would still come across Dulaimi in Adhamiya from time to time. I last saw him in early 2006.

Fadhil Al-Dulaimi was killed three days ago when a mortar round hit his bedroom while he was sleeping. His body was torn in half.

Adhamiya, a largely Sunni district of Baghdad, has been under random mortar fire coming from northern areas in the Shaab and Sadr City districts for the last few days. 27 people were killed and injured today in another round of mortar attacks on Adhamiya, the Interior Ministry said.

I'm at loss on what to do or say. I have only words left for the carnage back home.

Shalash Al-Iraqi (Shalash the Iraqi) is the nom de plume of an Iraqi citizen living in Sadr City, Baghdad. For Iraqis reading Arabic language websites, Shalash has been both a controversial and a most welcome online phenomenon, but for some reason he has escaped the radar of Western media coverage.

His columns first appeared on the Iraqi online opinion website Kitabat in December 2005. They were written from the perspective of an everyday Iraqi living in Sadr City - or Al-Thawra, as he calls it, using the pre-Saddam name of the district. Shalash’s style was gritty, streetwise, brutally honest but extremely humourous. He uses colloquial and slang terms in his writing, which appealed to a wide section of Iraqi readers who identified with him.

The characters of his short stories ranged from his opportunistic uncle, Haji Shnawa, who danced for both Saddam in the past and now Sadr; the former sergeant in the Iraqi army on his street who became a corrupt Sadrist cleric; Khanjar, the local troublemaker; Khadija, the young teacher that he often daydreams about her paying attention to his romantic moves; the old lady who sells groceries and campaigns for the Shi’ite electoral list; pickpockets; porters; Mahdi Army thugs; and so on.

No one is spared of his sharp criticism. He persistently jabs Iraqi governmental officials, revered clerics, insurgents, militias, Arab leaders and Americans. Even Madonna has been a subject for one of his recent stories, in which he asks her to adopt him so he can be saved from the Mahdi Army and instead become neighbours with Julia Roberts and Cameron Diaz.

His early columns were upbeat and he immediately garnered a huge following of Iraqis transcending religious, sectarian, regional and ethnic differences, mostly because he refused to align himself with any particular Iraqi group. Other writers desperately attempted to duplicate his style, but failed. Iraqi officials wrote to him and promised him rewards for writing certain stories but he turned them down, while militias and religious fundamentalists sent him death threats.

Shalash’s columns suddenly underwent a change in mid 2005 as a result of the murder of a friend. His writings turned darker and darker and there was increasing desperation and pessimism in his tone. His fans declared him dead and wildly speculated that some one else was publishing under his name. Shalash then disappeared for a few months, but has since returned and is now blogging here (Arabic).

For many Iraqis, Shalash is a sign that gives them hope.

***

Translations of some of Shalash's posts:

- Displaying strong nationalistic zeal:

I’m Iraqi, from Anbar. Believe me, I’m from Anbar, but I never allowed Takfiri Mujahideen into our house, waiting in line to blow themselves up in the midst of our elderly and children.

I’m Iraqi, from Diyala. Believe me. But I don’t behead my countrymen and put their heads in banana boxes.

I’m Iraqi, from Salah Al-Din. Yes, I’m from Tikrit, Samarra and Baiji, but I don’t blow up electric power stations and oil pipelines.

I’m Iraqi, from Erbil, but my beloved Baghdad will remain my capital and the Iraqi flag will fly from my rooftop.

I’m Iraqi, from Thawra, but I don’t form gangs to kidnap and kill people for vile sectarian reasons.

I’m Iraqi from Shu’la, but I don’t attack Ghazaliya and kill people for no reason.

I’m Iraqi, from Dora, but I don’t wear half a dishdasha and deport my people to Rusafa because they are of a different sect.

I’m Iraqi, from Basrah, but if Cyrus, Rustum, Bahshati, Balshati, Isfahani and the likes of them try to enter Ashar without invitation, I’ll break their legs and the legs of those who brought them.

- Regarding the missing American soldier in Baghdad:

Americans are everywhere. They lost someone and they’re looking for him. He’s just one soldier. What’s wrong with you? Haven’t you seen soldiers? If you lose a country, like we have, what would you do? Maybe you’ll be digging on Mars. Anyway, the problem is the lost soldier is one of ours. Poor guy. He fled to America and even there he didn’t stay put. He went and volunteered for the army. Such bad luck. In America and serving in the army. Why didn’t you go to Hollywood? Go and be a popular artist like our coloured brothers. There’s nothing easier than singing in America. Wear half trousers, tear your clothes and bring a few dark girls from Al-Gayyara and just shout “I Love You.” They’ll immediately put you in the 50 Cents band. If you don’t like 50 Cents, form your own band and call it 50 Fils. If they don’t accept Iraqi currency, call it “Half a $100 bill” You found nothing else except to be a deputy sergeant? And then you go and get lost here and we have to suffer for it. Baghdad has been besieged for a week and people are sitting home. Even the reconciliation conference has been moved to London because of you. They say the roads are open there. But isn’t this grand? We fight at Abu Al-Saifain and Al-Fadhl and then we go reconcile in London. We went to the Ka’aba and didn’t find a solution. Are we going to solve our problems in London?

- At one of his desperate moments:

We hate the fall [of Baghdad], we hate the liberation, we hate the Sunni, and we hate the Shia, we hate turbans and sidaras and we hate Jihad and the Mujahideen, we hate the resistance and the resistors, we hate concrete [blocks], we hate the streets, we hate the pavements, we hate the ministries, we hate the institutions, we hate radio and TV stations, we hate news, we hate statements, we hate the parliament that has become a venue for oaths and nothing else, we hate songs, we hate advertisements, we hate newspapers, we hate cars, we hate garages, we hate conferences, we hate surprise visits, we hate neighbouring countries, we hate multinational forces, we hate the night, we hate the day, we hate the summer, we hate the sun that sends us hell, we hate sleep, we hate water, we hate electricity, we hate petrol and administrative corruption and theft, we hate sectarianism and sectarian quotas, we hate national accord, we hate the government of national unity, we hate the committees of integrity and absurdity and stupidity, we hate political parties and organisations, we hate gatherings and demonstrations and banners, we hate laughing, we hate crying, we hate work, we hate study, we hate each other, we hate ourselves, but – and this is a problem – we still love something that was called Iraq.

Will you save what has remained of this Iraq?

- Addressing Ammar Abdul Aziz Al-Hakim (SCIRI):

If the people of the centre, as you refer to them, want federalism, we, the people of the south, will not allow ourselves to be ruled again by the dynasty of treachery. And Ammar, if your grandfather was a supreme cleric, it was my grandfather who died diseased under the whips of feudal lords, who were the allies of your grandfather in the Khums and religious taxes. My grandfather died with his shovel in his hand and after deprivation and misery bent his back and delivered him to death, coughing a diseased Iraq. The illiterate man died and they found his body floating on the waters of the marshes. The poor man died and there was not enough money in his house to bury him beside the Prince of Believers [Imam Ali]. And here you come, as a mockery of fate, to deliver his land to Ettela'at. No, you Za’tout (childish fool), a thousand nos, you foster child of Ettela'at. I swear by God and the soul of my grandfather that you will not get one inch of a land that our grandfathers have plowed for centuries, and that we will plow until the day they are resurrected.

- On Iraqis in Eid:

I feel happy when I come across weddings in Karrada, and I see young people with their heads out of the windows, dancing and shouting. I can see a sort of revenge in their faces for the miserable conditions we live in. I’m happier when my friend Salim comes by and tells me he has a date with his girlfriend. I’m even happier when I see Hamoudi sitting in the Internet café, searching for porn sites, even though a sign above his head reads “Immoral websites are forbidden.” I feel happy not because I agree with Hamoudi, but because life goes on and it contains all this diversity.

- His most recent post, a tale full of metaphors. "Elephants flying" is an Iraqi idiom that is similar to "pigs flying":

When Naima’s elephant came out on the street for the first time, people believed what Nuwayra, Ghurab’s wife, used to say: that the reason for the annoying noise on their rooftops was a small elephant that she recently purchased. But Nuwayra, despite her efficiently detailed intelligence reports, was unable to find a plausible explanation for why Naima purchased this elephant. She was also confused when people would ask her where this elephant came from. And since we live in an area where facts are often confused with fantasies, some believed what Rahi bin Hanoon mentioned, that he saw a small elephant with wooden wings landing on Naima’s rooftop a year and half ago. Others believed the account of Bargouth Al-Fahad in which he says that because Bachai, Naima’s husband, had a habit of excessively swearing by the Prophet and the Imams, God morphed him into an elephant, and that he did not really travel to Syria, as Naima claims.

There are many stories about Naima’s elephant. Personally, I am not bothered by any of them. What is important to me is the pleasure brought by the presence of an elephant in Thawra. Deprived children can crowd around it, joyfully singing and clapping and cracking jokes. The elephant is their mobile zoo.

As to Naima, despite the relatively high expenses for the elephant, she insists on providing care for it, even with her difficult circumstances. And if we learn that Naima’s elephant is armored and cannot be affected by the largest car bomb in the world, we would excuse Naima for keeping this huge animal. The elephant wanders in Thawra from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., and then it goes out again from 6 p.m. until the curfew hour, and sometimes even after that by an hour or so, because the police fear it and no one can stop it.

Naima was seen in her Hawdaj (a curtained seat) on the back of her elephant during the last Sha’bani ziyara ritual, in the midst of the crowds walking to the shrine. The elephant extending its trunk and pushing forward while Naima was dozing on his comfortable back as if it was a bed. That was why the clashes between the pilgrims and the terrorists were named the “Battle of the Elephant” because people protected themselves from the heavy fire exchange by hiding behind Naima’s elephant.

Naima was also seen several times riding her elephant for shopping excursions, visiting friends and relatives, and for her trips to the health centre. Many eyewitnesses talk of the explosion of roadside bombs under the giant feet of the elephant, but Naima was never hurt. Even her elephant is unaware that it has stepped on roadside bombs that can destroy American Hummer vehicles.

The government heard about the elephant and sent a delegation to negotiate with Naima to use the elephant’s services for the transport of officials who are deprived of meeting with their people. Naima repeats the same thing for anyone who tries to open this subject, that this elephant is a form of divine care to protect her from the danger of terrorism that is reaping the lives of everyone. The cunning Talibani offered for Naima and her family to reside at his luxury resort in Dokan in return for his using the elephant for a month, because he wanted to go out to see his people as their elected president. Naima agreed and she moved to the resort. The elephant entered the Green Zone amid the jealousy and envy of the speaker of parliament, the prime minister and other officials who wondered how foxy Talibani got this armored elephant. The prime minister visited Talibani’s house and begged to be taken with him on a tour of the streets of Baghdad on the elephant’s back. Mashhadani heard about it and went to ask Mam Jalal [Talibani] for the same thing. Since Talibani was always known to be generous, he agreed and the three hopped on the elephant’s back. As the elephant was crossing the Jadriya Bridge, Abdul Aziz Al-Hakim saw it and his heart was full of envy. He offered to give up his plans for a federal southern and central region in return for riding with them. The three agreed and he boarded the elephant, surrounded by a bulletproof glass cage, and the elephant rushed ahead.

The four toured the Rusafa side of Baghdad. People were shocked and confused by this strange scene. They were not surprised by the elephant on the streets of Baghdad, but by witnessing the four promised officials leaving the Green Zone.

During the tour, Mashhadani asked Talibani where he got the elephant. Talibani laughed and said it was a Kurdish elephant flying above the mountains of Kurdistan, captured by the Peshmerga. Mashhadani laughed, and Maliki laughed. Hakim heard it and also laughed in a manner that deeply disturbed and disgusted the elephant. It lifted its trunk and let out a high roar. Then it spread its wooden wings and flew in the sky. The crowds watched this strange scene until the elephant disappeared in the thick clouds that suddenly gathered in the city’s sky. They only left after a thunderstorm of the scale that Baghdad had never witnessed before.

The next morning, when the rain had stopped and the sun had shined again, the spokesman for the Iraqi government, Ali Al-Dabbagh, appeared on Iraqiya TV to announce the flying of the elephant and the disappearance of four symbols of the nation. He opened his statement with the Quranic verse “Hast thou not seen how thy Lord dealt with the owners of the Elephant?” He concluded by stating that joint forces were interrogating the suspect, Naima, on charges of planning a military coup against the democratically elected government.

I first found this video to be amusing, but then those are policemen on duty in Baghdad, where the tortured corpses of dozens of Iraqis turn up every day.

Baghdad is rife with the strangest rumours again chiefly as a result of the latest deployment of American troops around major Shi’ite districts in Baghdad, signaling a movement against Shi’ite militias. The rumours also seem to have penetrated the concrete barriers of the Green Zone where anxious Iraqi governmental officials are whispering about an impending American “coup,” and according to some well-connected Iraqis inside the Green Zone, several officials have made travel arrangements. This followed tensions over the last week between the U.S. and a defiant PM Maliki that were supposedly resolved yesterday with the joint Iraqi-American statement reaffirming U.S. support for the Iraqi government and the commitment of the Iraqi government to a timetable for disbanding militias. The heavy deployment of American troops along with elite Iraqi security forces that are not part of the Interior or the Defense ministries aggravated these fears.


Mahdi Army groups in Sadr City are accusing SCIRI of setting up the American military operation against them. This could spell further trouble in Shi’ite cities in the south and another confrontation between the Mahdi Army and Iraqi security forces (dominated by SCIRI and Badr).

Sources in Sadr City reported that a son of Abu Dera’ and an aide were killed in the first American raid against the Chuwadir area of Sadr City Wednesday. Abu Dera’ is a feared name in Sadr City and Sunnis accuse him of atrocities against their community in several districts surrounding Sadr City. It’s hard to get facts about him since he has become a sort of a legend in that area of Baghdad, but people now claim that Sadr personally appointed him the responsibility of cleaning up the ranks of the Mahdi Army in Sadr City and that he has started cracking down on rival gangs and splinter Mahdi Army groups in the area. Following the American raid, he is reported to have fled behind the Sadda and is now in the Al-Amin district, just southeast of Sadr City. Clashes are still reported from Sadr City and American troops have blocked all main streets leading into the huge slum.

Tensions are still high in Amara, Diwaniya and Samawa. There was a failed assassination attempt against the military intelligence commander (a SCIRI member) in Samawa, and there were clashes between militias and the Iraqi police in Suwayra southeast of Baghdad. All are signs of the increasing distrust between the Sadrist movement and SCIRI, which form the largest blocs inside the UIA.

There was a brief scare at Najaf Thursday when local authorities closed down the shrine for an hour, citing a security threat. The shrine has been opened since but there are speculations on several Iraqi message boards that an incident at the shrine may be created in order to relieve the current tensions between the U.S. and the Shia and in order to speed up the formation of the Shi’ite federal region in the south.

In a related development, Muqtada Al-Sadr issued instructions to his followers yesterday to avoid an open confrontation with American troops and what he described as “their Nawasib followers.” Nawasib in Shia literature roughly translates to ‘those who have set themselves against the prophet’s household.’ It’s a historical reference to Muslim caliphs and armies who have persecuted the prophet’s grandsons and their followers (the Shia). The term is used today in Iraq among Shi’ite circles as a veiled code for Sunnis, although they deny that and say they only mean terrorists who target the Shia. But many Sunni victims were taunted as Nasibis before their torture or execution by Shi’ite militias. Another significant point in the communiqué is a sense that the media is unfairly aligned against the Shia, a point which I’ll return to later. But here is the text of the statement (my translation):

1- I strongly reject, or I should say it is forbidden, to participate in any Shia-Shia, Sunni-Shia, or Iraqi strife, for whatever excuse. Preserving our beloved Iraq and driving out the ghost of occupation is our goal. Know that this infighting benefits the menacing trinity in general, and the occupier in particular. Therefore, do not be assisting them.

2- The murder, martyrdom or detention of any one of the believers by the occupation [forces] or any other security force is a glory and an honour for me and all the believers on earth, as long as we are right. That does not mean armed deployment and irresponsible reactions. Consult with your Hawza in everything. If it says go back, then go back. Just as you obeyed [your Hawza] in your jihad, obey it in your peace. And as my father (hallowed be his secret) said: “As I have told you one day, you should obey the orders of your clerics. Do not move and do not say a thing before your religious leadership says something. It is unacceptable, my dear. Because then you will only harm yourselves, your religion, your life and your afterlife.”

3- The media and military campaign waged by the forces of darkness, represented by the occupiers and the Nawasib, against the followers of the two Sadrs has become clear. On one hand, they raid the offices of the Martyr (hallowed be his secret) and cultural centres, and on the other they detain and assassinate the personalities of this honourable movement, in addition to the media war by paid channels. After their proclaimed war on terror in Iraq, represented by the Nawasib, they have replaced this with a war against the [Shia] sect, and the sons of the two Sadrs in particular. Developments in Baghdad and its surroundings have only proved the cooperation of the Nawasib with the occupier, and the cooperation of the media with both. They do not display their explosives and suicide vests, but instead they present it as self-defense against an attack. Shame on them and on their actions.

With great regret, this is all evident to leaders and politicians, but none have whispered a word [against it]. In general, be alert my dear brothers in this army and do not allow them to drag you to what they want. Instead we want you to preserve yourselves so that the powers and armies of darkness are not allowed to dominate our beloved Iraq. Let everyone know that my sole enemy is the occupier and his Nawasib followers. I will not accept any other party, be it Sunni or Shia, to be my enemy. They are your brothers in life and the afterlife, and an attack on any Iraqi is an attack against you and me. So fear Allah and be mindful. If I am killed or detained or forced to be away from you, commit to your religion and your sect and preserve your Iraq and your unity and your brotherhood, and do not be scattered, for the blood of our martyrs, the two Sadrs, are a torch that will light your way until Judgement Day. Their movement is never-ending and is here to stay.

[Seal]

Muqtada Al-Sadr

Sheikh Jabir Al-Khafai, an aide to Sadr, reiterated these instructions during his Friday sermon at the Kufa mosque, demanding that all followers of the Sadrist movement observe them and obey Sadr. He warned that some elements were attempting to “climb on the shoulders of the honourable movement” for their own personal interests.

This video filmed by an Iraqi doctor is a must see. I am amazed that someone could actually film the terrible conditions inside one of Iraq's most dangerous hospitals, Al-Yarmouk Hospital in western Baghdad, in these troubled days.

I was struggling to keep my tears from flowing because I was watching it with an American friend 2 days ago. But at one point, when an injured Shi'ite woman lying in an ambulance started screaming at the camera, "Bring Saddam back! It wasn't like this under his rule!" I lost control.

This should be on every American tv channel. Go see it.

When you're finished, go watch this moving tribute put by Iraqi Konfused Kid for his 4 friends who were killed in a roadside bomb explosion at Karrada one week before their graduation from college. It puts a face to the victims of this war. Those are our friends, brothers, neighbours and relatives. They were real people leading real lives. They are not statistics.

A storm has been brewing in the Iraqi blogosphere for a while. Most of it was offline in email discussions and many ugly remarks and angry accusations were made. Iraqi Konfused Kollege Kid has posted a roundup. To sum it up, 27 Iraqi bloggers reacted to Iraq the Model's reaction to the John Hopkins study published in the Lancet.

Baghdad Treasure also interviews several Iraqi bloggers and asks them whether they think this war was worth the price.

Salam Adil has another roundup of recent Iraqi blog posts, for Global Voices Online.

I should add that the above posts are unprecedented events on many levels in the fragile Iraqi blogosphere.

I urge you to carefully read the study first. Very few people seem to have actually done so.

In comparison, the much-criticised Iraq Body Count relies only on media reports (mostly Western and often by conflating 2 different sources) for their maximum body count of 48,639 civilians. I have said and will say again that the media reports only a tiny fraction of deaths in the country, usually the victims of car bombings or other significant violent events.

The collaborative study by the John Hopkins University, The School of Medicine at the Mustansiriya University, and the MIT Center for International Studies, pubished in The Lancet, is not the same. It is not an actual body count. This is an estimate of the total number of excess deaths over the last 3 years.

It uses cluster samples (uniform groups of samples in a specific geographical areas) as opposed to simple random samples. This is usually much more cost-effective and easier and in this case it’s, unfortunately, the only available method to get an estimate.

Simply put, the methods used by the study are valid, but in Iraq’s case, where the level of violence is not consistent throughout the country, I feel that the study should have been done differently. 654,965 excess civilian deaths is an absurd number. My personal guesstimate would be half that number, but the total count is not the point now.

Take a look at the incidence of reported deaths from violence across the country over the last 3 years. (My map, with data compiled from news stories.)


And compare it to population density across the country. (CIA map.)


The survey used 48 cluster samples from 16 governorates (a total of 1,849 households) and extrapolated the findings across the whole country based on the total population. I may be wrong, but I think this is problematic and can be misleading since the level of violence in, say, the Muthanna or the Erbil governorates is hardly even close to that of Baghdad, Diyala or Anbar. The results would have probably been much more accurate if the samples were selected solely from the areas I’ve depicted above in the map, and then to project the findings to the actual population of these areas. This makes more sense to me, but then I have a limited grasp on statistics and I stress that I may be wrong.

Now lets move on to reactions to the study.

One problem is that the people dismissing – or in some cases, rabidly attacking – the results of this study, including governmental officials who, arguably, have an interest in doing so, have offered no other alternative or not even a counter estimate. This is called denial. When you have no hard facts to discredit a scientific study, or worse, if you are forced to resort to absurd arguments, such as “the Iraqis are lying,” or “they interviewed insurgents,” or “the timing to publish this study was to affect American elections,” or "I don't like the results and they don't fit into my world view, therefore they have to be false," it is better for you to just shut up. From the short time I have been here, I am realising that some Americans have a hard time accepting facts that fly against their political persuasions.

Now I am aware that the study is being used here by both sides of the argument in the context of domestic American politics, and that pains me. As if it is different for Iraqis whether 50,000 Iraqis were killed as a result of the war or 600,000. The bottom line is that there is a steady increase in civilian deaths, that the health system is rapidly deteriorating, and that things are clearly not going in the right direction. The people who conducted the survey should be commended for attempting to find out, with the limited methods they had available. On the other hand, the people who are attacking them come across as indifferent to the suffering of Iraqis, especially when they have made no obvious effort to provide a more accurate body count. In fact, it looks like they are reluctant to do this.

By the way, these same statistical methods were used to count civilians deaths in Darfur, but then I didn’t see anyone objecting to that.

In regard to Iraqi governmental officials, it was their responsibility to provide reliable numbers, but when the Ministry of Health and the Baghdad Medico-legal Institute (Baghdad’s main mortuary) is under the control of Sadrists, who have prohibited access to medical records and morgue counts by the press, and who have an interest in manipulating numbers for their own political agendas, I would absolutely question their criticism of this study. And by the way, most cemeteries in Iraq would not accept a body without a death certificate, unless the bodies are buried in mass graves or backyards without reporting them to health authorities (look at this to understand why), which in this case the government would regard them as ‘missing.’ While working in hospitals and health centres in Iraq, it was sometimes my responsibility (when the late-night doctor was unavailable or, in some cases, sleeping) to oversee the checking in of corpses at the hospital and to issue a death certificate indicating the cause of the death. No certificate is issued without a body, and it is required that several copies are kept. IDs of dead people are shredded at the spot and their names are removed from their family’s food ration cards. The Ministry of Health should have access to certificates issued throughout the country over the last 3 years. And both the Defense and Interior ministries have their own counts. Now why isn’t any independent body looking into that information?

The conservative count of 100 civilian deaths per day in the Baghdad area is a standard number these days.

When I spoke at the ONA conference in Washington last Saturday, I was asked whether the Western media was neglecting the good news from Iraq. I answered that it used to be that way in the early days following the war, but that now they are failing to capture how bad it really is. Western reporters are holed up in their offices in Baghdad. Even their Iraqi stringers who do most of the actual reporting are now finding it increasingly difficult to venture into certain neighbourhoods of Baghdad. What about the rest of the country? How many reporters, Western or Iraqi, are there in the Anbar governorate? Ninewa? Diyala? Salah Al-Din? Babel? Maysan?

There also seems to be a common misconception here that large parts of the country are stable. In fact, not a day goes by without political and sectarian assassinations all over the south of Iraq, particularly in Basrah and Amara, but they always go unnoticed, except in some local media outlets. The ongoing conflict between political parties and militias to control resources in holy cities and in the oil-rich region of Basrah rarely gets a nod from the media every now and then, simply because there are very few coalition casualties over there. The same with Mosul and Kirkuk, both highly volatile areas. I am yet to see some good coverage on the deadly sectarian warfare in Baquba, northeast of Baghdad, which has the highest rate of unknown corpses dumped on the streets after the capital, and which was about to be announced an Islamic Emirate by the end of Ramadan. There are absolutley no numbers of civilian casualties from Anbar. There is no one to report them and the Iraqi government controls no territory there, while American troops are confined to their bases. And much, much less data from other governorates which give the impression of being 'stable.'

I have personally witnessed dozens of people killed in my neighbourhood over the last few months (15 people in the nearby vicinity of our house alone, over 4 months), and virtually none of them were mentioned in any media report while I was there. And that was in Baghdad where there is the highest density of journalists and media agencies. Don’t you think this is a common situation all over the country?

I am seriously concerned about the situation in my neighbourhood. It has been less than a week since my family returned, and now my brother, Nabil, reports this horrifiying incident.